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According to the first official election results, Donald Trump is the clear winner of the 2024 presidential election. The USA is therefore facing an extremely critical turning point in its history. “The scenario that we have already predicted several times is now materializing: America is on a direct path to autocracy,” says Dr. Heinz-Werner Rapp, founder and head of the FERI Cognitive Finance Institute. The FERI Institute had already predicted Trump's election victory in 2016, contrary to the majority opinion at the time.
According to the FERI Cognitive Finance Institute, a second Trump presidency harbors serious risks. Protected by the Supreme Court, which guarantees presidential immunity, Trump is likely to move very quickly to restructure the USA in the direction of a presidential dictatorship. “Trump will immediately demonstrate his anti-democratic stance and massively restructure the state apparatus of power - including with clearly unconstitutional measures,” explains Rapp. The aim is a massive concentration of power in the office of the US president, reinforced by the extensive elimination of democratic checks and balances. This not only undermines the principle of separation of powers, but also jeopardizes the independence of the US Department of Justice and the FBI. “It is to be expected that Trump will abuse these institutions to persecute political opponents. In addition, Trump will pardon the Capitol strikers of January 6, 2021 - and possibly even himself,” said Rapp.
In his second presidency, Trump is aiming for a comprehensive “power grab” that does not even stop at the neutrality of the US Federal Reserve. “Trump wants direct control of interest rate and monetary policy. This threatens the integrity of the US financial system and creates global uncertainty,” warns Rapp. The role of the US dollar as a global anchor currency will also be jeopardized in the future. In addition, Trump is planning to introduce high US tariffs, which will result in high burdens for Europe and the global economy. “In our analysis 'Trump reloaded' in January 2024, we already clearly identified the multitude of these new risks. Large parts of this scenario will now definitely become reality,” explains Rapp. Entrepreneurs, investors and market participants are required to continuously assess and price in the economic and geopolitical consequences of 'Trump 2.0' from now on.
The analysis “Trump reloaded” is available in German in the download section on this page.